Could Gambling Save Science Encouraging An Honest Consensus Essays

Could Gambling Save Science: Encouraging an Honest Consensus To appear in Social Epistemology, 1992. (version appeared: in Proc. Eighth Intl. Conf. on Risk and Gambling, London, 7/90.) C O U L D G A M B L I N G S A V E S C I E N C E? Encouraging an Honest Consensus by Robin Hanson Visiting Researcher, The Foresight Institute P.O. Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA [emailprotected] 510-651-7483 The pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our academic institutions to reward being popular, rather than being right. A market-based alternative, where scientists can more formally "stake their reputation", is presented here. It offers clear incentives to be careful and honest while contributing to a visible, self-consistent consensus on controversial (or routine) scientific questions. In addition, it allows patrons to choose questions to be researched without choosing people or methods. The bulk of this paper is spent examining potential problems with the proposed approach. After this examination, the idea still seems plausible and worth further study. INTRODUCTION After reviewing the discrepancy between what we want from academic institutions and what we get from current institutions, a market-based alternative called "idea futures" is suggested. It is described through both a set of specific scenarios and a set of detailed procedures. Over thirty possible problems and objections are examined in detail. Finally, a development strategy is outlined and the possible advantages are summarized. THE PROBLEM THE SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION Four centuries ago, some Europeans complained that the existing academic institutions were biased against them. Insiders, it was said, were "inflated by letters" and shunned anyone who dared "speculate on anything out of the common way" [De]. Outsiders -- astrologers, chemists, and people like Bacon and Galileo -- argued that they and their theories should be judged by how well they agreed with observations, and not by how they agreed with the authorities of the day [Gal]. This was the age of utopias [Whi], as these rebels debated possible academic reforms and imagined whole new social institutions, for both academia in particular and society in general. Within a century or so, the intellectual descendants of these outsiders became the new insiders in a process now called the "Scientific Revolution". They introduced a new respect for observations along with new social institutions, such as the Royal Society of London, inspired by those utopian ideals. Since then science has made impressive progress. Most controversial issues of four centuries ago seem long settled by now, and continued research may well settle most of today's controversies. Academia can claim some credit for this, and academic institutions have continued to evolve in response to perceived problems, formalizing publication in journals, credit in citations, and evaluation in anonymous peer review. PROBLEMS WITH ACADEMIA Yet little has really changed. Academia is still largely a medieval guild, with a few powerful elites, many slave-like apprentices, and members who hold a monopoly on the research patronage of princes and the teaching of their sons. Outsiders still complain about bias, saying their evidence is ignored, and many observers [Gh,Red,SmP,Syk,Tr,Tul] have noted some long-standing problems with the research component of academia. {footnote: Teaching reform is beyond the scope of this paper. I am content to observe that there are no obvious reasons why the changes I will propose should make teaching worse.} As currently practiced {footnote: Early peer reviewer consisted more of personally observing experiments and trying to reproduce analyses.} peer review is just another popularity contest, inducing familiar political games; savvy players criticize outsiders, praise insiders, follow the fashions insiders indicate, and avoid subjects between or outside the familiar subjects. It can take surprisingly long for outright lying by insiders to be exposed [Red]. There are too few incentives to correct for cognitive [Kah] and social [My] biases, such as wishful thinking, overconfidence, anchoring [He], and preferring people with a background similar to your own. Publication quantity is often the major measure of success, encouraging redundant publication of "smallest publishable units" by many co-authors. The need to have one's research appear original gives too little incentive to see if it has already been done elsewhere, as is often the case, and neglects efforts to integrate previous research. A preoccupation with "genius" and ideological wars over "true" scientific method [Gh] needlessly detract from just trying to be useful. Perhaps the core problem is that academics are rewarded mainly for telling a good story, rather than for being right. (By "right" I include not only being literally correct, but also being on the right track, or enabling work on the right track.)

Learn Ten Facts About Washington, D.C.

Learn Ten Facts About Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C., officially called the District of Columbia, is the capital of the United States. It was founded on July 16, 1790, and today has a city population of 599,657 (2009 estimate) and an area of 68 square miles (177 sq km). It should be noted, however, that during the week, Washington, D.C.s population rises to well over one million people due to suburban commuters. The population of the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area was 5.4 million people as of 2009. Washington, D.C. is home to all three branches of the U.S. government as well as many international organizations and the embassies of 174 foreign nations. In addition to being the center of U.S. government, Washington, D.C. is known for its history, many historic national monuments and famous museums like the Smithsonian Institution. The following is a list of ten important things to know about Washington, D.C. Inhabited by the Nacotchtank Tribe of Native Americans When Europeans first arrived in what is present-day Washington, D.C. in the 17th century the area was inhabited by the Nacotchtank tribe of Native Americans. By the 18th century though, Europeans had relocated the tribe and the region was becoming developed. In 1749, Alexandria, Virginia was founded and in 1751, the Province of Maryland chartered Georgetown along the Potomac River. Eventually, both were included in the original Washington, D.C. District. The Residence Act In 1788, James Madison stated that the new U.S. nation would need a capital that was distinct from the states. Shortly thereafter, Article I of the U.S Constitution stated that a district, separate from the states, would become the seat of government. On July 16, 1790, the Residence Act established that this capital district would be located along the Potomac River and President George Washington would decide exactly where. The Organic Act Officially Organized the District of Columbia Initially, Washington, D.C. was a square and measured ten miles (16 km) on each side. First, a federal city was constructed near Georgetown and on September 9, 1791, the city was named Washington and the newly established federal district was named Columbia. In 1801, the Organic Act officially organized the District of Columbia and it was expanded to include Washington, Georgetown, and Alexandria. The War of 1812 In August 1814, Washington, D.C. was attacked by British forces during the War of 1812 and the Capitol, Treasury and White House were all burned. They were quickly repaired however and governmental operations resumed. In 1846, Washington, D.C. lost some of its area when Congress returned all District territory south of the Potomac back to the Commonwealth of Virginia. The Organic Act of 1871 then combined the City of Washington, Georgetown and Washington County into a single entity known as the District of Columbia. This is the region that became known as todays Washington, D.C. Washington D.C. Is Still Considered Separate Today, Washington, D.C. is still considered separate from its neighboring states (Virginia and Maryland) and it is governed by a mayor and a city council. The U.S. Congress, however, has the highest authority over the area and it can overturn local laws if necessary. In addition, residents of Washington, D.C. were not allowed to vote in presidential elections until 1961. Washington, D.C. also has a non-voting Congressional delegate but it does not have any senators. Economy Focused on Service and Government Jobs Washington, D.C. currently has a large growing economy that is mainly focused on the service sector and government jobs. According to Wikipedia, in 2008, federal government jobs made up 27% of the jobs in Washington, D.C. In addition to government jobs, Washington, D.C. also has industries related to education, finance, and research. D.C. Is 68 Square Miles The total area of Washington, D.C. today is 68 square miles (177 sq km) - all of which formerly belonged to Maryland. The area is surrounded by Maryland on three sides and Virginia to the south. The highest point in Washington, D.C. is Point Reno at 409 feet (125 m) and it is located in the Tenleytown neighborhood. Much of Washington, D.C. is parkland and the district was highly planned during its initial construction. Washington, D.C. is divided into four quadrants: the Northwest, Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest. Each quadrant radiates out from the Capitol building. The Climate Is Humid Subtropical The climate of Washington, D.C. is considered humid subtropical. It has cold winters with average snowfall at about 14.7 inches (37 cm) and hot, humid summers. The average January low temperature is 27.3ËšF (-3ËšC) while the average July high is 88ËšF (31ËšC). The Population Distribution As of 2007, Washington, D.C. had a population distribution of 56% African American, 36% White, 3% Asian and 5% other. The district has had a significant population of African Americans since its founding largely because of the freeing of slaves in the southern states following the American Revolution. Recently, however, the percentage of African Americans has been declining in Washington, D.C. as more of the population moves to the suburbs. Cultural Center of the U.S. Washington, D.C. is considered a cultural center of the U.S. because of its many National Historic Landmarks, museums and historic places such as the Capitol and White House. Washington, D.C. is home to the National Mall which is a large park within the city and it contains museums like the Smithsonian and the National Museum of Natural History. The Washington Monument is located on the west end of the National Mall. Sources: Wikipedia.org. (5 October 2010). Washington Monument - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_MonumentWikipedia.org. (30 September 2010). Washington, D.C. - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.